How VAR Affects Soccer Betting Outcomes

Video Assistant Referee (VAR) has revolutionized soccer. Introduced to improve decision-making, it has changed the way matches are played and judged. For soccer bettors, VAR has added a new layer of complexity to predicting outcomes. Here, we’ll explore how VAR impacts soccer betting and what strategies you can use to adapt.

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What Is VAR?

VAR uses video technology to review on-field decisions. Referees consult VAR to ensure accuracy in four key areas:

Goals: Confirming whether goals are valid.
Penalties: Reviewing penalty decisions.
Red Cards: Assessing incidents leading to direct red cards.
Mistaken Identity: Correcting errors in identifying players.

This technology aims to make soccer fairer, but it often influences betting outcomes significantly.

The Impact of VAR on Soccer Betting

VAR doesn’t just change the game on the field. It has profound effects on how bettors approach wagers.

1. Increased Uncertainty

Before VAR, a referee’s decision was final. Now, a goal or penalty can be reversed minutes after being awarded. This delay creates uncertainty for bettors, especially those wagering on live games. Example:

A team scores, but VAR disallows the goal for offside.
A bet on “First Team to Score” becomes void, altering potential payouts.

2. Higher Odds Volatility

VAR’s influence leads to fluctuating odds, especially in live betting. Odds change rapidly as VAR decisions are reviewed. Advice:

Monitor live matches closely.
Place bets during pauses, as odds may shift after a VAR review.

3. Impact on Specific Markets

Certain betting markets feel the VAR effect more than others. Over/Under Goals:

VAR decisions often nullify goals, affecting total goal counts.
Betting on fewer goals may become safer in VAR-regulated matches.

First Goalscorer:

VAR can reverse initial scorers, complicating bets on this market.

Penalties Awarded:

Penalty markets gain importance. VAR increases the likelihood of penalties being awarded after reviews.

Strategies for Betting in the VAR Era

To succeed in soccer betting, you must adapt to the VAR landscape.

VAR Affects Betting

1. Research Team Histories with VAR

Teams adapt differently to VAR. Some play more cautiously to avoid reviews, while others exploit it to gain advantages. Tip:

Study a team’s history with VAR.
Look for trends, like frequent penalties or overturned goals.

2. Consider Referee Tendencies

Referees have unique styles, even with VAR. Some rely heavily on technology, while others stick to on-field decisions. Action Plan:

Research referees in upcoming matches.
Look for patterns in their use of VAR.

3. Bet on Penalty Markets

VAR increases the number of penalties awarded. Betting on penalties can be a lucrative strategy. Example Markets:

“Will There Be a Penalty?”
“Penalty Scorer.”

4. Use Live Betting to Your Advantage

Live betting allows you to react to VAR decisions in real time. Delays caused by VAR reviews give you a chance to evaluate new odds. Advice:

Wait for VAR outcomes before placing bets.
Take advantage of odds shifts during reviews.

5. Be Cautious with Accumulator Bets

Accumulator bets combine multiple outcomes into a single wager. While high-risk, they offer substantial payouts. However, VAR increases the chances of overturned results, making accumulators riskier. Recommendation:

Limit the number of legs in your accumulator.
Avoid including markets prone to VAR interference, like first goalscorer.

Key Examples of VAR Influencing Betting

Several high-profile matches illustrate VAR’s impact on betting.

Tottenham vs. Manchester City (2019 UEFA Champions League)

Scenario: Raheem Sterling scored a late goal, seemingly sending City to the semifinals.
VAR Decision: The goal was disallowed for offside.
Betting Impact:
- Bets on City to win were voided.
- Underdog bettors profited from the decision.

France vs. Australia (2018 FIFA World Cup)

Scenario: VAR awarded France a penalty for a foul on Antoine Griezmann.
Outcome: Griezmann scored, changing the match dynamic.
Betting Impact:
- Bets on “Penalty Awarded” and “Penalty Scorer” paid off.

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Psychological Effects of VAR on Bettors

VAR not only alters outcomes but also affects bettors’ emotions.

Frustration

Delayed decisions can frustrate bettors, especially those wagering live. Watching a goal reversed after celebrating can be disheartening. Solution: Stay patient and adjust your strategy based on VAR outcomes.

Overreaction

Bettors may overestimate VAR’s influence, leading to impulsive decisions. Example:

Assuming every review results in overturned goals.
Betting excessively on “No Goals Scored.”

Tip: Balance caution with logic. VAR doesn’t overturn every decision.

The Future of VAR and Betting

As VAR evolves, its influence on soccer and betting will grow.

Improved Accuracy

Advancements in technology will likely reduce review times and increase decision accuracy. This could stabilize odds and minimize betting disruptions.

New Betting Markets

VAR opens doors for innovative markets, like:

“Number of VAR Reviews.”
“Time Taken for VAR Decisions.”

Wider Adoption

More leagues will integrate VAR, standardizing its use globally. Bettors must adapt to this widespread influence.

Conclusion

VAR has transformed soccer, bringing fairness but also complexity. For bettors, it creates both opportunities and challenges. By understanding VAR’s impact and adjusting strategies, you can navigate the changing landscape of soccer betting. Stay informed, adapt quickly, and use VAR to your advantage. Soccer betting, like the game itself, is now more unpredictable—and exciting—than ever.

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