Soccer betting has evolved significantly over the years, with advanced statistics now playing a key role in helping bettors make more informed decisions. One of the most useful metrics in this regard is Expected Goals (xG). While many fans are familiar with basic stats like goals scored or assists, xG provides a deeper look at a team’s attacking and defensive efficiency, offering a more accurate prediction of match outcomes.
In this blog post, we’ll break down how to use Expected Goals (xG) in soccer betting. We’ll cover its definition, how to interpret xG data, and how you can apply it to make smarter betting decisions.
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What is Expected Goals (xG)?
Expected Goals (xG) is a statistical metric that measures the quality of goal-scoring chances a team creates or concedes during a match. Rather than just counting the number of goals scored, xG takes into account factors like the location of the shot, the type of shot, and the angle, as well as the goalkeeper's position. Every shot taken is assigned a value between 0 and 1 based on its likelihood of resulting in a goal.
For example:
- A close-range shot with no defender blocking it has a higher xG value (close to 1) because it’s more likely to result in a goal.
- A long-range shot from the edge of the box with multiple defenders in the way has a lower xG value (closer to 0) because it’s less likely to score.
The sum of a team’s xG over a match or a season gives an indication of their attacking strength. Similarly, xG against (xGA) measures the quality of chances conceded by a team.
Why Use xG in Soccer Betting?
Using xG in soccer betting provides bettors with a better understanding of a team’s true performance, rather than relying on the final score alone. Often, teams can win or lose matches by a small margin, but xG offers more insight into how they played.
1. Better Predicting Match Outcomes
One of the most valuable uses of xG is in predicting match outcomes. If a team wins a game with a significantly lower xG than their opponent, it suggests that they were lucky or clinical with their finishing. On the other hand, if a team loses despite generating a higher xG, it indicates they may have been unlucky. This can help identify which teams are performing better than their results suggest, and which teams are overperforming or underperforming.
By comparing xG values across multiple games, you can spot trends. For example, a team consistently outperforming their xG might be in good form, while a team underperforming their xG could be struggling and may be due for a regression.
2. Understanding Team Strengths and Weaknesses
xG is not just about predicting results – it also helps you analyze team strengths and weaknesses. By analyzing the xG of different teams, you can gain insight into their attacking and defensive capabilities.
- High xG for attacking: A team consistently generating high-quality chances is a strong attacking team. This could mean they have good playmakers, strong forwards, or effective team tactics.
- Low xG for defending: A team with low xG against (xGA) suggests they’re good defensively, often preventing high-quality chances from the opposition.
When betting, you can use this information to identify teams that might be underperforming due to poor finishing or teams that are overperforming due to lucky goals. xG can also highlight defensive vulnerabilities, which could be exploited in betting markets like total goals or both teams to score.
3. Identifying Value Bets
Betting on outcomes like match winners or over/under goals is a common approach, but these markets can be volatile. Instead, xG offers an alternative way to identify value bets. By comparing a team’s current xG to the odds offered by bookmakers, you can find discrepancies. For example, if a team has a significantly higher xG than their opponent, but the bookmakers have set odds that heavily favor the opponent, it might indicate a value bet.
In this sense, xG becomes a tool to uncover where the betting market may be mispricing a team’s chances, allowing you to capitalize on odds that don't accurately reflect the true strength of each team.
4. In-Play Betting Insights
xG can also be used in live or in-play betting to assess how the game is unfolding. During a match, teams can fluctuate in their attacking and defensive capabilities. By tracking xG live, you can make more informed decisions about how a match is likely to end. For example, if one team is consistently creating higher-quality chances (reflected in a higher xG), you may decide to back that team for a win or over goals, even if the scoreline doesn’t reflect it yet.
Similarly, you can use xG to make better predictions about in-play markets like next team to score or total number of goals. A team that’s generating a lot of high-quality chances but has yet to score could be more likely to find the back of the net soon, making them a good candidate for the next goal market.
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How to Use xG in Your Betting Strategy
xG is valuable for soccer betting. Let's look at how you can integrate it into your strategy.
1. Assess Team Form Using xG Trends
Rather than only looking at recent results, dive deeper into a team’s underlying performance by evaluating their xG trend. A team’s form can be judged by looking at the number of goals they should have scored based on the quality of chances they created.
For example, if a team is continually outperforming their xG, they might be due for a regression where they start to miss chances or the opposition’s goalkeeper performs better. If they are underperforming their xG, they could be primed for a breakout game where their finishing improves.
Tracking xG trends over time can provide valuable insights into whether a team’s results are sustainable or if their luck will run out.
2. Focus on Key Betting Markets
While xG can be used across various betting markets, it is particularly useful for markets like:
- Over/Under Goals: If a team’s xG suggests they are creating many high-quality chances, it could indicate a high-scoring game. Similarly, a team with a high xGA could be vulnerable to conceding goals, which also supports betting on over goals.
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS): If both teams are generating a high xG, there’s a strong chance both will score. Similarly, if one team has a low xGA, it might suggest they’re harder to break down, making BTTS bets less likely.
- Match Result: By looking at both xG and xGA, you can determine which team is more likely to win. A team with a significantly higher xG than their opponent is likely to win, even if the odds don’t reflect that.
3. Betting Against the Market
Sometimes, the betting market doesn’t fully take xG into account when setting odds. For example, if a team is dominating play according to xG but losing on the scoreboard, bookmakers might favor the other team due to their recent results. In this case, betting against the market could provide value. This especially if the team with the higher xG is still priced as an underdog.
4. Use xG for Long-Term Betting
Over the course of a season, xG is an excellent tool for identifying value bets in league-long markets like top scorer or to win the league. By tracking the teams that consistently outperform their xG, you can get a clearer sense of which teams are underachieving and which are overachieving. This long-term perspective can help you place better bets over the course of the season.
Conclusion
Expected Goals (xG) is a powerful tool that can transform your soccer betting strategy. By moving beyond the final scoreline and analyzing the underlying stats, you gain a better understanding of team performance. xG can help you predict match outcomes more accurately, uncover value bets, and give you an edge in both pre-match and live betting markets.
Using xG in your betting approach requires practice and a keen eye for trends, but with time, it can lead to smarter and more profitable decisions. So, next time you’re analyzing a soccer match, be sure to consider the xG – it’s a game-changer for any bettor.
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Hi very interesting post
Do you perhaps know what xg and xga score reflect what odds in btts? I been thinking to make some prediction system in excell where i put in the numbers and it gives me a probability of btts. I’m not sure how much weight to put to this factors. And what to use, like lineair regression?